Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 06 2023 23:56:51

AWUS01 KWNH 062356
FFGMPD
COZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0438
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Areas affected...southeastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062354Z - 070300Z

SUMMARY...A short term flash flood threat appears to be setting up
over portions of southeastern CO. A quick 2-4 inches of rain will
be possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...2345Z radar imagery from KPUX showed rapidly moving
outflow boundaries from thunderstorms along the CO Front Range and
High Plains about to merge over Pueblo County. A local maximum in
MLCAPE was estimated over the region via the 23Z SPC mesoanalysis
with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the instability in place, slow
movement of the steering flow aloft and placement beneath the
ridge axis aloft, additional thunderstorm development is expected
over the next 1-2 hours with high rainfall rates (1 to 2+ in/hr)
and potential for a quick 1-3 inches for portions of southeastern
CO. Wind shear aloft is weak which should limit longevity of cells
but given portions of this region have seen well above average
rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks, susceptibility to flash flooding
will be locally increased.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_kvxoQX8-E5dJzKx4OJY4Gtyx9ibb-Hr1v91jrZirJ4oiFeG0__pQ-w7nWx6-MxQfgRx=
VFD7iSxCRex6yZEGR6cupb0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38700437 38340320 37800290 37340283 37000324=20
            37060423 37390485 37800512 38430510=20

=3D =3D =3D
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