Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 06 2023 23:34:22

AWUS01 KWNH 062334
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-070530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Areas affected...northwestern NV, southern OR and northern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062332Z - 070530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose an
isolated flash flood risk to portions of northwestern NV, southern
OR and northern CA over the next few hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr are expected with the stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...GOES West infrared and GLM lightning imagery showed
ongoing thunderstorms at 23Z over northern CA with fairly good
coverage while thunderstorms to the north and south of this region
were more widely scattered. Another region of thunderstorms was
noted to be translating northwestward, extending in a broken line
from a strong closed low over central CA, arcing northeastward
into northern NV/UT. ML and MUCAPE varied across the CA/OR border
into northwestern NV, with values as high as 1000 J/kg, owing
partially to steep 700-500 mb lapse rates which ranged from 7.5 to
9 C/km to the northeast of the closed CA low (via SPC mesoanalysis
data). Mean steering flow was taking storms from east to west
across northern CA but brief training and margers were supporting
MRMS hourly totals over 1 inch in a few locations.

It appears that the arc of thunderstorms from north of Lake Tahoe
into northern NV will continue to advance off toward the west and
northwest over the next few hours, following the deeper-layer flow
to the northeast of the closed low. This motion will allow for
increased coverage of thunderstorms over northwestern NV into
northeastern CA over the next 1-2 hours, with additional
development possible into remaining sections of northern CA where
the RAP forecasts instability of 500 to 1000+ J/kg holding on just
beyond sunset. There may be some overlap of additional convection
later this evening with earlier storms from the afternoon. While
likely remaining localized, flash flooding will be possible where
stronger cores set up, containing rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The
flash flood risk will be enhanced over any wet antecedent ground
conditions and/or with overlap with any recent burn scars.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!88-mp-6RSOaa625bH2Vv0k1-cVO2jbNX6FDsBt8NNxVlF_bKkv-BXh_EgAwvld_jc6qX=
4185pRnPkzWtKS642654rjw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...EKA...LKN...MFR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43232242 43062169 42462036 42441947 42591750=20
            41791723 41371765 40431963 39862150 40192195=20
            40692203 40882221 40772255 40602275 40342280=20
            40042271 39882302 40092345 40832400 41552399=20
            42532351=20

=3D =3D =3D
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