Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0944
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 06 2023 21:56:17

ACUS11 KWNS 062156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062155=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-062330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Areas affected...South Carolina into extreme eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062155Z - 062330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
storms through the evening, with a gradual weakening trend likely
after sunset. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across
SC over the past hour or so, with MRMS mosaic radar data indicating
30 dBZ echo tops exceeding 45 kft and MESH showing hail approaching
1 inch in diameter. Shear across the region is poor, though mid 60s
F surface dewpoints amid 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z
mesoanalysis) is contributing to 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. The stronger
pulse storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps
an instance of severe hail. After sunset, nocturnal cooling should
result in waning storm intensity. Nonetheless, the severe threat
should remain isolated at best and a WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!84DqtCKHlvgOmTgYQblPqmb4CZ1748KrVZxBXkMw3fLQWTBfbf43Ab3o0hvOe36JzQZNZjZX3=
v6i3RtpmvpCfOCoty4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34748269 34898170 34657984 34297932 33667940 33027969
            32658011 32368066 32208104 32258139 32928248 33738287
            34748269=20


=3D =3D =3D
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