Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 06 2023 20:30:17

AWUS01 KWNH 062030
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 PM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Areas affected...southern CO into portions of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062024Z - 070100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will pose a localized flash
flood threat over far southern CO into a large portion of NM over
at least the next 3-5 hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 30-60
minutes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East visible satellite imagery at 20Z showed
convection underway across the higher terrain of the central to
southern Rockies and the Colorado Plateau along the AZ/NM border.
Moisture and thermodynamic profiles at ABQ look fairly similar to
yesterday but there is better upper level support in the form of
diffluence aloft, located east of a slow moving closed upper level
low over CA. Daytime heating has helped to generate 500-1000 J/kg
CAPE across much of NM with only weak convective inhibition noted
on the 19Z SPC mesoanalysis, much of which should be eroded as
temperatures continue to warm through the 70s into the lower 80s
for some locations despite some high cloud over moving in from the
west. Weak steering flow over central NM with 5-15 kt deeper-layer
mean flow in place will support slow moving storms.

As daytime heating continues to erode remaining inhibition over
the next few hours, thunderstorm coverage will expand over central
NM as convection from the west moves into the region. Resulting
outflows, storm mergers and slow movement of individual cells will
pose an isolated flash flood threat across much of south-central
to north-central NM into far southern CO. Weak shear should limit
the duration of storms but the potential for 1 inch of rain in
15-30 minutes and 1-2 inches of rain in 30-60 minutes will pose a
flash flood risk.  However, the coverage of flash flooding is
expected to remain limited to recent burn scars and otherwise
sensitive locations, especially given above average rainfall
across the region over the past week.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Zb4lICP-unO9cHZF_81GEUQu4-sZyVVIE_WMBVF3UFHsTAh9us5c-SYoK5XTA_tKRDa=
j7Fvee7WZSzjItICEqFc8h4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37720513 37320443 36900434 35580486 34890497=20
            33590487 32860525 32550584 32480728 33350788=20
            34830805 36290772 37020704 37530603=20

=3D =3D =3D
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