Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 06 2023 04:35:01

AWUS01 KWNH 060434
FFGMPD
CAZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060435Z - 061000Z

SUMMARY...Backbuilding and slow cell training pose localized
enhanced rainfall totals, perhaps in complex terrain may result in
localized flash flooding conditions overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts larger scale elongated closed
low across Southern California, with stronger lobe of shortwave
energy along the eastern side of the elongation.  This lobe is
starting to wobble westward with favorable upper-level divergence
centered along the southern San Joaquin Valley to support low
level wind response for upslope along both sides of the Costal
Range in SLO county as well as from the Valley in Kern county.  A
small pocket of unstable air (500-600 J/kg of MLCAPE) within the
DPVA has is supporting convective initiation along the length of
the divergence axis of the upper-low.  CIRA LPW suite, denotes a
narrow wedge of enhanced moisture through depth (with bulk of the
total residing int he southern valley ~ .4-.5") supporting totals
up to 1".

This will allow for moisture convergence and rainfall generation
to support .5-.75"/hr rates.  Initially, updrafts may remain
stationary along the eastern slopes of the Temblor/Caliente into
the San Emigdio Mountain ranges, perhaps supporting localized
1-1.5" totals given 1-2 hour duration.   More likely, favorable
upwind propagation vectors (due to approach of DPVA and outflow
regime) within a fairly unidirectional steering flow regime across
S Kern into SLO/NW Santa Barbara county may allow for some
training/repeating allowing for a narrow axis of 1-2" totals.=20
Given the convergence is along the drier eastern slopes, normally
experiencing rain-shadowing; the atypical regime may result in
well above normal rates and potential for localized possible flash
flooding through the overnight hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8EgMbfL73AA4Ce-n_dga9DjOUwVYv5SxbYtcvdmWVWxhetfJJAhwN7EZe1ArNsZqFIes=
vO9wIO74mJ3El5_QqxTDaNk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35631918 35511864 35181805 34821796 34641836=20
            34691904 34731993 34722061 35002074 35332089=20
            35622008=20

=3D =3D =3D
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