Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0939
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 05 2023 20:27:10

ACUS11 KWNS 052027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052026=20
CAZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern CA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052026Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized strong/severe gusts and
perhaps some hail may increase through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Despite generally limited low-level moisture, strong
diurnal heating has resulted in modest destabilization across parts
of northern CA, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg.
Widely scattered thunderstorms have already initiated, and
additional development is expected through the remainder of the
afternoon, especially across terrain-favored areas. Deep-layer shear
will remain relatively weak, but midlevel easterly flow to the north
of a mid/upper-level low near the coast of southern CA will support
westward-moving cells/clusters through the afternoon.=20

Steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated hail potential with
initial storm development across relatively higher elevation areas.
With very steep low-level lapse rates, some threat for localized
strong/severe gusts will accompany any stronger outflow-driven
clusters that spread into the lower elevations. The severe threat is
expected to remain too marginal and isolated for watch issuance.

...Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6yPPWlETkCZmssrEE_-b3HqUi_2BlehFDL-XFK8S1lYuHW9mb0xl6_5UKUuDhcDYREug1Nxd8=
HIvZG4PEbTPVtAonpw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA...

LAT...LON   41452364 41982231 41862089 41142046 40312010 39902042
            39722101 39602210 39482326 39922370 40992394 41452364=20


=3D =3D =3D
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