Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 05 2023 18:16:55

AWUS01 KWNH 051816
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 05 2023

Areas affected...Southern LA...East TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051815Z - 060000Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall rates
in excess of 2"/hr may cause flash flooding this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar captured thunderstorms moving WNW along
and north of a surface convergence boundary along the southern LA
coast. These storms are being directed toward the WNW thanks to a
low-mid level circulation center to the south. The environment
already has 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE at the storms disposal, as
well as PWATs that are ranging between 1.6-1.7". As the storms
progress WNW, the ongoing area of storms will continue along their
heading while additional storms form closer to the TX/LA border
and along the central Gulf Coast as the surface convergence zone
slowly drifts north.

Area averaged HRRR soundings show a highly unstable environment
with warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000ft in some cases. Winds
within the surface-300mb layers are almost uniformly out of the
ESE. Training cells could transpire, as evidence by Corfidi
vectors topping out around only 5 knots. The 12Z HREF's
probabilities for 1-hr QPF exceeding 2" were as high as 40-60% in
portions of southern Louisiana this afternoon. The region has
generally been drier than normal over the past 7-14 days, which
should limit the areal extent of possible flash flooding. That
said, areas where flash flooding is most likely to occur is where
any training cells transpire, but also in poor drainage spots or
more urbanized locations that may struggle to handle up to 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!86flN21UkUYgfv1qbrpcrZInhN4rTip1qaMSfoESr8YECPP0q3WV9iy-ahU_4dWHiAWK=
9AA7IkhwkntbK8P57Ivpehg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31029262 30849178 30609124 30239040 29859002=20
            28979022 29369203 29579308 29459386 29589430=20
            30069433 30459416 30899351=20

=3D =3D =3D
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