Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 05 2023 17:21:25

AWUS01 KWNH 051721
FFGMPD
TXZ000-052300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0430
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EDT Mon Jun 05 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051720Z - 052300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms containing 2-3"/hr rainfall
rates may lead to flash flooding, especially in more urbanized
communities.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Geocolor imagery shows a burgeoning field of
towering cumulus forming along a nearby surface trough as of 17Z.
The region remains beneath the axis of an inverted 850-500mb
trough aloft where steering flow winds are topping out no higher
than 5 knots. With strong surface based heating ongoing, the
atmosphere is growing increasingly unstable. RAP mesoanalysis
indicates more than 600 J/kg of MLCAPE has manifested itself over
southeast TX in the past 3 hours. Eventually, MLCAPE will
generally range between 1,500-2,000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. PWATs
are also ranging between 1.5-1.8" (higher side of those values
along the coast as of 17Z) with that 1.8" PWAT area likely to
expand north and west to include the Houston metro area.

Area averaged HRRR soundings in southeast TX around 18-20Z show an
environment that will be capable of efficient warm rainfall
processes, highlighted by warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000 feet
in some locations. The CAPE soundings aloft are also taking on a
skinny profile, which is also preferred for warm rain processes.
With the available instability and moisture aloft, these slow
moving storms could pack a punch with hourly rainfall rates maxing
between 2-3"/hr. The slow moving nature of these cells could mean
a rapid accumulation of water in low lying areas and on roads,
thus giving rise to a possible flash flood threat this afternoon.
Typical poor drainage areas and nearby creeks could be susceptible
to flash flooding. The areas most at-risk would be the more
heavily urbanized communities of southeast TX, which does include
the immediate Houston metro area.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_JMlavGw3Ioq13HTQryvmvLdGeHCAbffhn83xKgcnOYbF7EjWULNaQqzBRl-Blfk_SwI=
E10AFSmDHoBaAQf6C3Z0AmM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31439612 31309549 30469493 29409447 28939513=20
            28609590 29289649 30099657 31009682=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.