Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 05 2023 17:10:38 ACUS02 KWNS 051710 SWODY2 SPC AC 051708 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA .... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across parts of the Sierras/Great Basin, southern High Plains, northeastern Georgia into South Carolina, and south Florida. ....Synopsis... Overall upper pattern is forecast to remain relatively stagnant on Tuesday, with upper ridging center over the northern Plains, an upper low over central/southern CA, and expansive cyclonic flow over much of the northeast CONUS. Surface pattern across the CONUS will be void of any influential features, with only modest lee troughing across the High Plains and the deepest area of low pressure over Nova Scotia. Even with this stagnant large-scale pattern and unremarkable surface pattern, a few more subtle features could still result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms. ....South FL... Thunderstorm development is forecast Tuesday afternoon as sea-breeze boundaries move through a destabilized airmass. Slightly stronger mid-level southwesterly flow is anticipated across southern FL on Tuesday, contributing to the potential for more updraft organization and isolated damaging downbursts. ....Northwest CA into the Great Basin... A shortwave trough rotating through the CA upper low will contribute to increase thunderstorm coverage and low severe-thunderstorm potential across the western Great Basin Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low-level moisture will be modest, but increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will boost buoyancy, helping support stronger updrafts. Additionally, high cloud bases atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will aid in the development of strong downdrafts, with damaging gusts as the primary threat across the region. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, a few isolated instances of hail are also possible. ....South Carolina into Western Georgia... This region is expected to be on the southern edge of any stronger westerly flow aloft while on the northern extent of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy. Overlap between these features, coupled with ascent attendant to a weak, southward-progressing surface trough, may result in a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening. Steep low-level lapse rates suggest damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ....Southern High Plains... Despite limited low-level moisture, afternoon thunderstorm development is still anticipated over the higher terrain of the southern Rockies. Isolated development is possible along the lee trough as well. Veering wind profiles will contribute to 20 to 30 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be enough for a few more organized/robust updrafts. Additional storm development, with higher coverage south into the TX Trans Pecos region, is expected during the evening as a shortwave trough progresses into the region. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are possible with this activity as well. ....Northeast... Shortwave trough rotating around the upper low centered over Nova Scotia is expected to move through the Northeast during the early afternoon. Low-level moisture will be modest, but cold mid-level temperatures will still support limited buoyancy and the potential for a few thunderstorms. Shear will also be weak, with the marginal nature of the overall environmental conditions limiting the severe potential. ...Mosier.. 06/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .