Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 05 2023 16:32:55 AWUS01 KWNH 051632 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-052230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0429 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1232 PM EDT Mon Jun 05 2023 Areas affected...Central Rockies & High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 051630Z - 052230Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding is possible this afternoon as slow moving thunderstorms containing heavy downpours develop over burn scars and areas with overly saturated soils. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 water vapor imagery showed showed a swath of low-mid level moisture embedded within an elongated 500-700mb trough aloft. RAP 850-500mb streamflow analysis shows a convergence of opposing wind flow patterns directly over the central Rockies as ENE flow over the central Plains collide with WSW winds originating out of the Southwest. Surface based heating is well underway, signaled by the growing field of agitated cumulus along the taller peaks of the Rockies. This is also the case in the central High Plains where despite the lingering cloud cover, virtually no capping is present according to RAP mesoanalysis. RAP forecasts suggest MLCAPE will rise as high as 250 J/kg over the higher terrain, which also coincides within an air-mass that features low-mid level RH values >80%. MLCAPE could rise up to 500 J/kg in lee of the Rockies of southern CO and northern NM with similar moisture content. NAEFS at 18Z this afternoon shows 90-99th climatological percentile mean specific humidity values at 700mb, showcasing the anomalous moisture present over the Rockies. PWATs look to range between 0.5-0.75", which is also at or above the 90th climatological percentile for most of the region. Mean wind speeds in the 700-300mb layer are exceptionally light. Area averaged soundings from the 15Z HRRR this afternoon show wind speeds topping around 5 knots in most cases from northern NM to southern WY. The 12Z HREF also shows probabilities for 6-hr QPF > 10-yr ARI between 18-00Z this afternoon between 20-60% within the at-risk area. Hourly rainfall rates topping out between 1.0-1.25"/hr are possible within the most intense cells. The region's soil moisture content also continues to rise thanks to 7-day precipitation amounts ranging between 300-600% of normal for many mountain ranges and into some of the central High Plains. The areas with more saturated and sensitive soils are most prone to possible flash flooding this afternoon, as are nearby burn scars in the higher terrain. Rugged and complex terrain, as well as more urbanized communities containing a greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces, could also be susceptible to flash flooding. Mullinax ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!79RucwiOvf-5CdBEbfbMHpAWknT6iYKDx2JEVLHlJAUZDIdoW6t5Tg__72goZnaeMt44= kZn9cTB_jZr7wT67EuJaVzo$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41620533 41000481 40330473 39820479 39430453=20 38950381 37870377 36610357 36060426 35620481=20 35440538 35750582 36700598 37080674 37640741=20 38320747 38870711 39780671 40980687 41300666=20 41560619=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .