Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 05 2023 00:03:08

AWUS01 KWNH 050003
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-050300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050000Z - 050300Z

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms likely to form over an area
featuring highly sensitive soils. Flash flooding is possible with
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr possible.

DISCUSSION...As a trio of denoted outflow boundaries approach far
east-central NM, there remains a bubble of 1,000 J/kg worth of
MLCAPE for storms to tap into this evening. PWATs are around
0.8-0.9" per RAP mesoanalysis, which are close to the 90th
climatological percentile. Area averaged HRRR soundings in this
area denoted low-mid level RH values close to 80%. Also, the 18Z
HREF showed 30-40% probabilities for 1"/hr rainfall rates, which
would challenge local 1-hr FFGs. Soil moisture remains above
normal thanks to 600% of normal rainfall totals over the past 7-14
days. With the potential for more strong thunderstorms containing
downpours for a few more hours, flash flooding is possible in
areas with highly sensitive soils and in poor drainage areas.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5NEZnTxfiCpI71E_G2Pl_KIkpItGM3i_EhLERfisi0eIcTe-07rJZBPYNzgkA1tstmoo=
E-LcjGi995yYOsGJfG-wzXA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35430324 35000292 34030271 33690296 33640403=20
            33990457 34810489 35360441=20

=3D =3D =3D
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