Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 21:55:37

AWUS01 KWNH 042155
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0427
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...Northwest Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042155Z - 050100Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms along an outflow boundary approaching from
the north may produce hourly rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Flash
flooding is possible in urbanized areas and where soils are overly
saturated.

DISCUSSION...Sufficient instability (500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
PWs around 1" are available as thunderstorms push south towards
Lubbock and neighboring towns along the Cap Rock. A West Texas
mesonet site in Happy, TX reportedly measured 0.72" in 20 minutes
according to the 435PM CDT FFW issued by the LUB WFO. These cells
remain progressive, but based on these observed rainfall rates and
the environment ahead of it, similar rainfall rates are possible
as these storms approach the Lubbock area. Soils remain sensitive
given the area has received 400-600% of normal rainfall over the
past 14-days according to AHPS. Storms should eventually weaken as
they progress south of Lubbock, but the combination of excessive
rainfall rates atop overly saturated soils suggests additional
flash flooding could occur. The more urbanized towns and poor
drainage spots are also susceptible to flash flooding.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-CcXy_XgRiIqzVjk3u8R3yYk5nBhflFUDf1NksznzuEob_ggjuuwpG9UbFHGq0VMM54v=
vpV2eftkluVSP8m1yVw6B_k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34420187 34060103 34019975 33609980 33310066=20
            33270146 33510236 34200258=20

=3D =3D =3D
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