Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 20:31:38

AWUS01 KWNH 042031
FFGMPD
TXZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...South Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042030Z - 042300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms along a surface trough may
cause flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar showed a cluster of strong-to-severe
storms along a surface trough draped west-to-east just northwest
of San Antonio. It also showed some hints of a mesocyclone
circulating within one of the cells northwest of Hondo. They have
not moved much over the last hour, but additional cells may form
as when its outflow boundary extends away from the cluster of
storms. This could put the immediate San Antonio metro area and
neighboring towns at risk for storms capable of producing hourly
rainfall rates >2"/hr. RAP mesoanalysis showed these storms were
tapping into 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE and PWATs close to 1.5". FLASH
CREST max unit streamflow is depicting 200-600 cfs/smi beneath
these cells, suggesting rapid runoff may be ongoing. Should any
additional cells contain mesocyclones, those storms would have the
better odds of being more efficient rainfall producers.

Given the suitable environment for slow moving cells along the
trough, and the potential for these cells to expand, flash
flooding is possible in more urbanized communities and poor
drainage areas.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8fYz9CeQ5Riy8-MdjtBXDNQ1eBqOyRkB73UMqjJyRxO7rIt_l_dfjW3LjMKRUH0kEiqD=
cVvLhDFKBP-YNeR9Rg6lDDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30279843 30029815 29369827 29059901 29369984=20
            29740018 30119997 30109938 30129887=20

=3D =3D =3D
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