Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0935
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 18:07:02

ACUS11 KWNS 041806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041806=20
TXZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...Parts of South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041806Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible later this afternoon,
with a primary threat of hail and localized severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...The effects of extensive antecedent convection are
evident across much of TX early this afternoon, but some
destabilization is ongoing near and south of a remnant outflow
boundary across parts of south TX. The boundary is better defined
closer to the coast, and convection has recently increased near
Corpus Christi. The boundary becomes less defined farther northwest
toward the Hill Country, but increasing cumulus is noted in visible
satellite imagery into areas west/northwest of San Antonio.=20

Continued heating/destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing above 1500
J/kg) and weakening of MLCINH will support increasing storm coverage
later this afternoon. Deep-layer flow is rather weak across the
region, but modest midlevel northwesterlies to the west/south of an
MCV over north TX will generally support effective shear in the
20-30 kt range. This will support the potential for a few organized
multicells, and perhaps a marginal supercell or two in the immediate
vicinity of the outflow boundary. Isolated hail and localized severe
gusts are expected to be the primary threats. Depending on storm
coverage, there is some potential for outflow mergers and the
development of a southward-moving storm cluster deeper into south TX
with time, though this scenario remains uncertain at this time.=20

With the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated, watch
issuance is considered unlikely.

...Dean/Grams.. 06/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ji7LaLypgVZXdCvLc3KpOqxDPP379hZsG7xGpP8i6N3z3_7HcEOpIyxHR4C96MQgSCzV4Wg_=
KO0zxlsafy897demSc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   26709746 27309875 28599947 29669994 29959959 29979908
            29349858 28759815 28349735 28339710 27979700 26709746=20


=3D =3D =3D
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