Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 17:37:34

AWUS01 KWNH 041737
FFGMPD
NMZ000-042335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...North-Central to South-Central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041735Z - 042335Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of the Sangre De Cristo and South Central Mountains of New
Mexico will pose concerns for flash flooding this afternoon with a
focus on local burn scars.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
convective initiation taking place across the Sangre De Cristo and
South Central Mountains of New Mexico where there are some notable
burn scar sensitivities in place. This includes the Hermits
Peak/Calf Canyon and McBride wildfire burn scars from the 2022
fire season.

Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
expanding in coverage over the terrain over the next few hours as
terrain-induced circulations, differential heating, and related
orographic ascent couples with strong diurnal heating and
increasing surface-based instability.

Rainfall rates with today's convection are expected to be as high
as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour based off the latest 12Z HREF suite of
guidance, with some storm totals locally reaching 2 to 3 inches by
the late-afternoon hours.

The high hourly and sub-hour rainfall rates alone will favor a
concern for flash flooding over these burn scar locations, and
this will especially be the case should some of these slow-moving
cells become locally anchored for an extended period of time over
the terrain before then moving away over the adjacent High Plains.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8SukKHD3gWArynQQz2ATsjpAvuGSFZXVP4C1SKRZFUZI-nXrZW3PJZ1QYM38FrebOwDc=
MWbjacMWnPuBAFPgyN6Tya0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36960523 36610497 35840508 34500523 32960508=20
            32260521 32460585 33390606 35240605 36460569=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.