Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 17:17:31 ACUS02 KWNS 041717 SWODY2 SPC AC 041715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across western portions of Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Both occasional damaging winds and hail appear possible. ....Synopsis... An expansive anticyclone is forecast to remain centered near the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border throughout the day Monday, with its influence stretching through the Upper Midwest into the northern and central Plains. Upper troughing is anticipated east of this anticyclone, extending from Quebec through the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. A shortwave trough is expected to move through this troughing, from the Lower Great Lakes region across the Mid/Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. A pair of upper lows are anticipated west of the anticyclone, one over British Columbia and the other just off the southern CA Coast. The surface pattern will likely be void of any well-defined features, with generally modest winds across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception in across the High Plains in the vicinity of the lee trough. Somewhat stronger flow is possible from southern CA into NV and western AZ. Low-level moisture will remain within the southern and western periphery of the surface ridging, i.e. from the Southeast across the Lower MS Valley and into the southern and central Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening in these areas, but weak shear should foster a mainly multicellular mode across the majority of the region, limiting the severe potential. ....Carolinas and Northeast GA... The best overlap between buoyancy, moderate flow aloft, and forcing for ascent is anticipated from the western Carolinas into northeast GA, ahead of the subtle shortwave trough. A mix of multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two appears possible, with a corresponding risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. This activity should generally spread southeastward through early Monday evening before weakening. ....Central ID into western MT... With the region oriented between the anticyclone to its east and upper troughing across British Columbia, slightly stronger mid-level flow is anticipated from central/eastern ID into western MT on Monday. Modest buoyancy is anticipated as well, with afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected. Given the slightly stronger mid-level flow, potential exists for a strong storm or two. However, the overall severe threat will be mitigated by the limited buoyancy. ....Northern CA/Southern OR... High-based thunderstorms will likely move westward across the region throughout the afternoon and evening, fostered by increased mid-level moisture and orographically enhanced ascent. Shear will be weak, but the high-based character of these storms amid the well-mixed boundary layer may result in a few strong downbursts, particularly over lower elevations. ...Mosier.. 06/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .