Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 16:19:31

ACUS01 KWNS 041619
SWODY1
SPC AC 041617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH TX AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE TN VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas and
parts of the southern Appalachians to Tennessee Valley into this
evening.

....South TX...
In the wake of several clusters that resulted in extensive
convective overturning yesterday afternoon through last night,
appreciable buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) should largely
be confined to south TX later this afternoon. With minimal
large-scale ascent and light low-level winds through tonight,
convective development appears ill-defined, but may be initially
focused to the south of a remnant MCV in central TX. 20-30 kt
mid-level northwesterlies should offer adequate deep shear to
support a few transient supercells and multicell clustering. Amid
more moderate mid-level lapse rates compared to yesterday, isolated
severe hail and wind will be possible into this evening.

....Southern Appalachians to TN Valley...
A belt of 15-25 kt mid-level north-northeasterlies will persist
across the WV portion of the Appalachians owing to peripheral
influence of a quasi-stationary mid/upper low near the New England
coast. This should be adequate to support small to marginally severe
hail in isolated storms that form in and south of this region, along
with locally strong gusts later this afternoon. Farther
west-southwest, weak deep-layer shear will mitigate organized severe
storms, but sporadic microbursts will remain possible where moderate
buoyancy can develop.

...Grams/Thornton.. 06/04/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.