Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 07:58:23 FOUS30 KWBC 040758 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 AM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 04 2023 - 12Z Mon Jun 05 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....Southern to Central Plains into the Central to Northern Rockies... No significant changes anticipate to the blocking pattern across much of the nation during the day 1 period. A closed upper high will remain centered across the Northern Plains with an elongated area of troffing extending northwest to southeast on the western side of this ridge from the Northern Rockies into the Central to Southern High Plains. PW values in this elongated trof axis will remain above average, especially from northeast Colorado into Montana where PW anomalies will run 2+ standard deviations above the mean. Weak vorts in the high PW axis will again support another day of widespread scattered convection stretching from the Southern to Central Plains into the Central to Northern Rockies. This entire region has seen much above average precip over the past few weeks, with many areas having observed values 300 to 600% of normal. This will continue the risk of isolated flash flooding where any additional day 1 rains fall across areas that have received recent heavy amounts. With confidence low with respect to where any heavy day 1 totals will occur, much of this region was kept in marginal risk. The one exception continues over the Southern High Plains from far northeast New Mexico, across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region and southwest Oklahoma, where a slight risk area was maintained. This region has seen heavy rains over the past two days in the general same region and has a larger region of high 1"+ HREF probabilities for the upcoming day 1 period. ....Florida... The remnants of Arlene expected to pass to the south of South Florida early Sunday with any associated heavy rains on the north side likely having already pushed to the southeast of the southern portion of the peninsula by the beginning of the day 1 period.=20=20=20 In its wake, another day of scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms is likely across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula as the upper trof that the remnants of Arlene have been rotating through pushes across the Florida peninsula. HREF probabilities are high across the southern half of the Florida peninsula for 1 and 2"+ amounts. This may lead to isolated flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas where hourly rate of 1 to 2" are possible. Oravec Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_rq-6R-lqbENbJbrs4Z-4SfXqtv_34dXtcNjFtGOb5rP= A9wXwoEpGS-DhrT5i6vQtc-HmsqdN0xikWV8e2jr5wTxT1c$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_rq-6R-lqbENbJbrs4Z-4SfXqtv_34dXtcNjFtGOb5rP= A9wXwoEpGS-DhrT5i6vQtc-HmsqdN0xikWV8e2jrpktoxLQ$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_rq-6R-lqbENbJbrs4Z-4SfXqtv_34dXtcNjFtGOb5rP= A9wXwoEpGS-DhrT5i6vQtc-HmsqdN0xikWV8e2jr4nEjWKw$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .