Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 07:29:58

ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge/anticyclone is forecast to remain centered over the
northern Plains and central Canada on Tuesday. Two closed
mid/upper-level lows are also expected to persist over CA and the
Northeast/Canadian Maritime provinces. Multiple corridors of
thunderstorms should occur across the CONUS between these features.
But in general, areas with greater instability are not forecast to
overlap with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a threat for
organized severe thunderstorms. One exception may be across parts of
the Carolinas ahead of a surface trough. Gradually strengthening
west-northwesterly flow with height through mid levels across this
region should foster 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. However, weak
low-level convergence along the trough and poor lapse rates will
probably tend to limit thunderstorm development/coverage. Have
therefore not included low severe probabilities at this time.

Elsewhere, strong thunderstorms capable of producing occasional
gusty winds appear possible across parts of northern CA on the
northern periphery of an upper low, and across parts of
central/eastern MT. However, weak deep-layer shear across both these
regions limits confidence in an organized threat for severe
thunderstorms.

...Gleason.. 06/04/2023

$$

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