Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 04 2023 06:02:29 ACUS02 KWNS 040602 SWODY2 SPC AC 040600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across western portions of North Carolina and South Carolina. Both occasional damaging winds and hail appear possible. ....Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Southeast, Plains, and central Canada on Monday. A closed upper low off the coast of New England should move northward while large-scale upper troughing becomes more established/amplified over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Over the western states, an upper low should advance east-northeastward across CA through the period. ....Carolinas... A low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave trough embedded within large-scale upper troughing is forecast to move southeastward from the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic towards the Carolinas through Monday evening. Modest large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the development of isolated to scattered convection along a weak surface lee trough just east of the Appalachians by Monday afternoon. Sufficient low-level moisture and related instability should be present across the western Carolinas to support robust updrafts. Although low-level flow will remain weak, modest strengthening of the west-northwesterly winds at mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two appears possible, with a corresponding risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. This activity should generally spread southeastward through early Monday evening before weakening. Although there is still some spread in guidance regarding both the northeastward extent of meaningful instability and overall thunderstorm coverage, enough confidence exists in a somewhat favorable environment to include low severe probabilities for hail/wind. ....Elsewhere... Strong convection appears possible across parts of south TX, as modest enhancement to the mid/upper-level flow associated with a southern-stream jet will persist over this region. But, multiple rounds of prior convection will likely have occurred across this region, which casts too much uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage/evolution to include any severe probabilities. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur with thunderstorms across parts of western into north-central MT. But, weak forecast instability should tend to limit the severe threat. Finally, convection appears possible across much of CA in association with an upper low. While some stronger cores may occur Monday afternoon with peak heating, deep-layer shear generally appears too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. ...Gleason.. 06/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .