Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 23:02:19

AWUS01 KWNH 032302
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032300Z - 040200Z

SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms tracking east towards the Rio
Grande may contain excessive rainfall rates >2"/hr. Flash flooding
is possible in areas with saturated soils and in poor drainage
areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicted powerful
thunderstorms that emerged off the Sierra Madre and were tracking
east toward the Rio Grande River. RAP mesoanalysis showed as much
as 2,000 J/kg available and PWs up to 1.5" along the river. There
was also 30-40 knots worth of surface-6km vertical wind shear
present, helping to sustain these storms as they approached from
the west. The 850-300mb mean wind flow remains out of the west and
generally between 10-15 knots. This should keep the storms
progressive, but the highlighted area has also received 300-400%
of normal rainfall over the pats 7-days. The available instability
and moisture should support maximum hourly rainfall rates around
2"/hr, and could be higher in the most intense storms. Flash
flooding is possible over the next couple of hours, particularly
in poor drainage areas, urbanized communities, and in nearby
creeks and streams.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_FOpczUKFxlahfOuG4jZzoZDokndT4TxX21AGOWf1HRq6SBeKo9XHzIQIFm76m8sCF9P=
cofBjeLSM4dEeje4uDpCvt8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29250016 28609922 26659864 26279894 26689963=20
            27720023 28520063 29120085=20

=3D =3D =3D
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