Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0932
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 20:22:26

ACUS11 KWNS 032022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032021=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032021Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for severe hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing along the high terrain and
along and ahead of the dry line across western Texas/eastern New
Mexico. Storms have largely been located to the west of the higher
surface dew points as the dry line mixes eastward. Steep lapse rates
throughout the profile, in combination with robust MLCAPE around
1500-3000 J/kg (highest across far southern Texas near the Mexico
border), will promote quick development of storms, a few of which
may become more organized and strengthen as storm scale interactions
from terrain and outflow contribute to local surface vorticity.
Additional storm development could lead to more upscale growth as
storms begin to move along developing outflow. Potential for severe
hail and damaging winds will remain possible through the afternoon.
Overall, the best overlap of shear/thermodynamics continues to be
located just to the south of the developing activity across portions
of South-Central Texas, which may limit the spatial extent of the
severe threat. This area will be monitored for changes but a watch
is unlikely at this time.

...Thornton/Grams.. 06/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Bch-yi-XkRq3Ri9Y9TGgCSKDzxxYO6au99d42BaYHeBSQBlRE8illIp-LV-7oovyjldox-tn=
JYD6_DYCvTnLGs53X4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32510498 33020520 33790519 34170492 34280436 34300369
            33840278 33370225 32430161 31930027 31549927 31349882
            30929862 30469886 30049920 29599945 29129986 29070046
            29090068 29320093 29640130 29780147 29790181 29810219
            29870231 29780241 29780262 29650274 29460282 29370287
            29210298 29040318 29050330 29150357 32510498=20


=3D =3D =3D
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