Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0931
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 18:11:56

ACUS11 KWNS 031811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031811=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-032015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Areas affected...eastern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...and far
western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031811Z - 032015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been noted across eastern
Texas into southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 60s to low 70s have allowed air mass
destabilization, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern Texas
into western Louisiana and southern Arkansas analyzed through RAP
surface objective analysis. Deep layer flow is weak, resulting in
slow moving storms and very little shear in the background
environment. Given this regime, storms will generally pose a brief
severe risk and remain pulse in nature. Occasional gusty winds and
hail will be possible. Given the limited threat, a watch is not
being considered at this time.

...Thornton/Grams.. 06/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7o2akp9F0AZ0VQOt41cd-Bv_oTy4rdT5G2eze7LLoE-awtPlLmdSgqkyb_KfZX0mPPPuV7H8j=
UpdgkYz-8T5d0qYazw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31119549 31379575 31989601 32749610 33529592 33899576
            33969476 33819432 33149389 32149351 31559335 31169329
            30689334 30029352 29829365 29739396 29789423 30089470
            30239481 31119549=20


=3D =3D =3D
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