Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0930
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 17:28:24

ACUS11 KWNS 031728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031727=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-031930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Areas affected...Parts of PA...Eastern OH...Northern/eastern
WV...Northern MD/VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031727Z - 031930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts and
perhaps some hail will be possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating of a modestly moist
environment has resulted in the development of weak to moderate
buoyancy early this afternoon across parts of PA, with MLCAPE
potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg with time as heating
continues. A cold front is moving south/southwestward toward the
region from parts of NY/New England, though little low-level
convergence is evident in surface observations. Despite relatively
weak large-scale ascent, cumulus has notably increased across parts
of PA into far western MD, and additional heating/mixing will
support scattered thunderstorm development with time this afternoon.

A belt of somewhat stronger northerly midlevel flow associated with
a mid/upper-level cyclone over New England is approaching the area
from the north, though the strongest flow is likely located between
any available 12Z soundings. Recent guidance suggests the strongest
midlevel flow will likely be confined to the eastern part of the MCD
area, where effective shear increasing to around 30 kt may support
modestly organized southwestward-moving cells/clusters capable of
locally damaging gusts and some hail. Farther west into western PA,
storms will tend to be more disorganized within a weakly sheared
environment, but sufficient buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates
may support localized downbursts and small to briefly severe hail.=20

With the potential for more organized convection likely confined to
a smaller area across eastern PA/northern MD, and the magnitude of
the threat expected to remain relatively limited, watch issuance is
considered unlikely.

...Dean/Grams.. 06/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_8_25emR8xtCX6xD72F35rA7VPASXBWJ00OeDyLiVeIbusrL5h8vJsONa0rhJMHtxOz36z0FJ=
225-C82Hwa8VFKXbMA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   41128038 41377804 41567656 41427606 41167587 41057591
            39147661 39187826 38197961 38088009 39038090 39958101
            40658097 41128038=20


=3D =3D =3D
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