Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 17:02:24 ACUS02 KWNS 031702 SWODY2 SPC AC 031700 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible from middle Tennessee into central Alabama and northwest Georgia on Sunday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive upper anticyclone is forecast to remain in place over the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and central Canada on Sunday. Upper troughing will flank this ridging on both sides, with the western trough extended across British Columbia. The eastern troughing will extend farther south along the Eastern Seaboard, anchored by an upper low that is expected to drift southward/southwestward off the New England coast. Additionally, a pair of upper lows are anticipated along the southern/western periphery of the anticyclone, one drifting south/southeast across TX and the other moving northward across ID. Surface pattern will be relatively nondescript, with a generally weak gradient and modest winds anticipated. High pressure over the eastern CONUS will result in offshore/continental trajectories, with limited low-level moisture. The only exception is near a weak low over the TN Valley, where low to mid 60s dewpoints are possible. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this low. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization and favoring a multicellular storm mode. Even so, relatively high storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates could still result in isolated damaging gusts. Highest probabilities for damaging gusts are currently expected from middle TN into central AL and northwest GA. A moist low-level air mass should remain over the southern Plains, and daytime heating will likely foster weak to moderate instability by Sunday afternoon. Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as the aforementioned upper low drifts through this moist and buoyant air mass. Mid/upper flow across the region will be weak, limiting shear and likely keeping the majority of storms sub-severe. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible, but coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ...Mosier.. 06/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .