Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 08:55:53

ACUS48 KWNS 030855
SWOD48
SPC AC 030854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
With a quasi-omega blocking pattern forecast to continue over the
CONUS, little severe potential is evident from Day 4/Tuesday through
Day 6/Thursday next week. Eventually, the southern portion of an
upper trough/low over the western states may advance farther
eastward across the southern Plains from Day 7/Friday into Day
8/Saturday. A corresponding increase in the mid/upper-level
westerlies associated with a southern-stream jet should foster
strengthening deep-layer shear in this time frame. Convection may
develop both Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening along/east of a
weak lee trough/dryline as modest large-scale ascent overspreads the
warm sector. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to
severe given the increased deep-layer shear forecast. However,
predictability regarding the details of convective initiation,
coverage, and timing of subtle mid-level perturbations within the
southern-stream jet currently lend low confidence in an organized
severe threat for either day.

...Gleason.. 06/03/2023

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