Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 06:00:52

ACUS02 KWNS 030600
SWODY2
SPC AC 030558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge/anticyclone will remain centered over the northern
Plains and central Canada on Sunday. Downstream, an upper trough/low
should gradually shift eastward off the coast of New England through
the period. Multiple weak mid-level vorticity maxima, acting in
combination with terrain influences, should aid convective
development across parts of the Sierras/Cascades into the Great
Basin, Rockies, and Southwest. Weak shear across these regions
should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.

Multiple remnant MCVs from prior convection, outflow boundaries, and
areas of mid-level vorticity should be present over the southern
Plains Sunday. A moist low-level airmass should remain over this
region, and daytime heating will likely foster weak to moderate
instability by Sunday afternoon. Most guidance shows scattered to
potentially numerous thunderstorms developing through the day from
eastern NM into much of TX/OK and adjacent parts of KS. Some of this
activity may be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail.
However, deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally weak, with
the possible exception of parts of west TX into deep south TX,
closer to an upper-level sub-tropical jet. Have opted to include no
severe hail/wind probabilities at this time, rather than outline a
broad area of seemingly low severe potential across the southern
Plains.

An area of greater thunderstorm coverage may develop Sunday
afternoon and early evening across the TN Valley and vicinity.
Occasional gusty winds may occur with the most robust downdrafts as
low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating and the boundary
layer becomes well mixed. Still, deep-layer shear is expected to
remain rather weak, which should limit updraft organization and
overall severe potential.

...Gleason.. 06/03/2023

$$

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