Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 02:58:27

AWUS01 KWNH 030258
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030658-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Corrected for Discussion was from MPD 414...

Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley in south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030158Z - 030658Z

Summary...A few more hours of localized flash flooding remains
possible as mature complex moves through the Rio Grande Valley.

Discussion...GOES-E 10.3um IR loop depicts a mature convective
complex starting to slide out of WPC MPD 413 to the south and east
across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Overshooting tops cooling
below -70C resides along, just east of a ribbon of enhanced
instability with MLCAPEs of 2500+ J/kg just west of the river, to
its east, instability diminishes as mid-level warming is
increasing CINH and reducing the favorablity for the longevity of
the MCS itself.  However, given the complex's maturity, strong
moisture flux along the leading edge and ample deep moisture
should maintain a risk of 2"+/hr rain-rates with a bulk falling in
a sub-hourly time period.  This is mainly given forward speed has
been increasing with strengthening flow from the west aloft, while
LLJ provides propagation toward the east and southeast.  This
orientation may allow for some small overlaps or repeating nature
of the downdrafts, though forward progress may limit overall
duration.  As such totals of 2-3" remain possible over the next
few hours, but it is the shear initial magnitude of the strong
downdrafts that may overwhelm local streams and induce possible
incidents of flash flooding.=20

Cook/Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9-aRp1EB-4IchJhuXlZIkS0vfFMttnFwhyV6LVAYpq0EntQxE9Mrp0_tdPD09YMsg_9A=
vnTqawuo9WpciSfDqn1MgK8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30470016 30019888 29659852 28949844 28409892=20
            28010001 28740107 29790183 30350129=20

=3D =3D =3D
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