Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 02:22:26 AWUS01 KWNH 030222 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-030800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0416 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...Ext. North Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030220Z - 030800Z SUMMARY...Mature MCS continues eastward, but may slow and pivot allowing for increased duration of heavy rainfall with spots of 2-4" inducing flash flooding conditions, which may be significant if centered over urban center of OKC. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and AMVs denote a strong southwest to northwest 50-70kt 3H jet streak over portions of E CO into the OK/TX Panhandle, as the main shortwave continues extend the larger scale negative tilt across central OK, providing ample deep layer ascent given right entrance outflow channel and DPVA. RADAR depicts the mature squall line is starting to slow, particularly on the northern fringes, as deep layer flow slacken is increasingly diffluent upper-level pattern across OK, but given meso-high/cold pool should still see progressive eastward propagation along the line, with stronger outflow noted over SW OK into NW TX.=20=20 In the lower levels, there remains ample buoyant airmass with 1500-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE that remains uncapped in the short-term. VWP shows the pre-cursory inflow environment is still generally weak at 15-20kts but remains at a favorable southeasterly convergent angle. RAP analysis also denotes fairly confluent flow, but also an axis of increased moisture across northeast TX, into south-central OK likely adding to the moisture flux to maintain efficient rainfall production. Moisture flux and updraft strength suggest hourly rates of 1.75-2"/hr are probable, though the bulk will fall in sub-hourly periods with a broad shield of moderate rainfall afterwards. However, as the line slows, some cells may pivot/stall; hourly totals may perk up to 2.5" with some spots getting 2-4" by 08z.=20 Central OK has not seen the recent heavy rainfall and so soils remain a bit drier/FFG a bit higher; as such flash flooding is considered possible. However, with time, the tilt/orientation of the squall line will become a bit more parallel, weakening flux convergence resulting in more scattered nature of stronger updrafts capable of intense rainfall generally after 06-07z.=20 Still, timing suggests, this slowing stalling may occur near/along I-35 near the urban corridor in central OK. While not highly confident this placement is certain, rates/totals of this magnitude have a higher potential to result in flash flooding, perhaps even locally significant and people living across this region should be aware of the risk going into the overnight hours. =20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5RikJa90lJ28vbAfpKe-R6FuvVTjSQ670RsPjEITbwLzKpAvcP2RPFx4MpboVL5mwSju= PsTQeN2M7cY5k9jNVfrmDIA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36929777 36059663 34569582 33689583 33379636=20 33499808 34199911 35649894 36499895 36899876=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .