Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 03 2023 01:58:29

AWUS01 KWNH 030158
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030457-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
958 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley in south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030157Z - 030457Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across the region
through 07Z.

Discussion...Deep convection continues to slowly migrate
northwestward across central and eastern Montana.  Lighter, more
stratiform rainfall continues across central Montana west of a
surface trough/stationary boundary across the region.  A few of
the convective cores have anchored/become stationary east of the
trough, allowing for locally heavy rain rates exceeding 2
inches/hr to materialize.  These rain rates were well above local
FFG thresholds, which are as low as 0.25 inch/hr from near
Lewiston to south of Billings and generally under 1 inch/hr
elsewhere across the state.

The overall synoptic environment supporting ongoing rainfall is
generally unchanged from the prior 3-6 hours.  East of the surface
trough, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE supports deep convection, while weak
steering flow aloft supports continued northwestward movement
toward areas of wet/sensitive ground conditions.  Locally heavy
rain rates (exceeding FFG) are expected to continue at times over
the next few hours, although weakening rain rates are expected as
updrafts weaken overnight with nocturnal boundary layer cooling.=20
The current thinking is that despite weakening convection, at
least light to moderate rainfall will occur atop low FFGs tonight,
supporting a continued risk of excessive runoff overnight.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-NxKLyQr2MI7k9fvSVeKxckZfv6V8cFXWnA76UYa01jaYsN7w881N2LcWIE_yegUma9z=
G1Jn0C_0Dq7IMynOrqhUOMY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30470016 30019888 29659852 28949844 28409892=20
            28010001 28740107 29790183 30350129=20

=3D =3D =3D
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