Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0926
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 23:30:46

ACUS11 KWNS 022330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022330=20
TXZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...255...

Valid 022330Z - 030100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254, 255 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
254-255. Large hail and the possibility of a tornado should remain
the primary threat in the short term, though a transition to severe
winds is possible as storms grow upscale into an MCS.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a compact cluster of
supercells with a history of 3 inch diameter hail just north of the
Rio Grande. Some of the latest MRMS mosaics depict 50 dBZ cores
extending up to 50 kft with 2-3 inch MESH cores. These storms
continue to thrive atop a mixed, very buoyant boundary layer, with
70+ F surface dewpoints overspread by 7-8 C/km lapse rates from the
surface to 500 mb, contributing to over 4500+ J/kg of deep, wide
SBCAPE profiles. Furthermore, a 30+ kt southeasterly low-level jet
is being overspread by 50+ kt 500 mb speed max, resulting in
modestly curved, but very long hodographs, supporting the 3+ inch
diameter hail (when considering the deep/wide CAPE profiles).=20

Current thinking is that very large hail and an occasional instance
of strong low-level rotation (possibly a tornado) will remain a
concern as long as supercell structures can remain relatively
discrete. However, hydrometeor loading and evaporative cooling
should support supercell cold pool mergers and subsequent upscale
growth into an MCS. Given the intense cores, 1+ inch diameter hail
should remain a threat even after MCS development. However, intense
cold pool development will support severe wind gusts as the main
threat with any MCS that materializes.

...Squitieri.. 06/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-DFkaDsc8KuGFTO0lrMjqfz2UdjLhIyyS0uwSHhTCPNqUKwGLfro6a1jxR3TQkoVYUcHzJXxE=
4ARtG4fbIR8xRG5HXI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830251 30340252 30710218 30950127 30970016 30759959
            30349935 29929935 29549938 29299954 29219987 29170037
            29230075 29480120 29670171 29720206 29830251=20


=3D =3D =3D
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