Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 23:01:57

AWUS01 KWNH 022301
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-030500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0413
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of west Texas and the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022300Z - 030500Z

Summary...Continued slow-moving downpours are resulting in an
ongoing flash flood threat that should continue for at least
another 3-6 hours.

Discussion...An elongated MCS continues generally along an axis
from the Texas/Oklahoma border area near I-40 southwestward to
near Lubbock and Midland.  The northern portion of this MCS has
tended to exhibit faster forward movement while merging with
convection out ahead of the main outflow.  The southern portion of
this MCS (closer to Lubbock and Midland) has been much less
progressive, with occasional back-building and training noted
especially on the southern end of the complex near Midland.  Rain
rates have eclipsed 2 inches/hr in several areas, eclipsing local
FFG and resulting in widespread, locally significant flash
flooding this afternoon.

A second convective cluster has also exhibited significant
backbuilding southeast of Fort Stockton.  This cluster has
resulted in areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates and low to moderate
MRMS Flash responses along and south of I-20 in that area.

The storms continue to ingest very moist, strongly unstable air
(2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) and are benefiting from increasing
low-level shear, with south-southeasterly 850 mb flow now
approaching 30 knots.  This airmass will continue to allow for
storms maintain intensity while migrating east-northeastward.=20
Localized backbuilding and training will remain possible with all
of the activity, and occasional 2+ inch/hr rain rates will
continue to eclipse local FFG and promote flash flooding.  Storms
are forecast to eventually reach U.S. 83 in west-central Texas
from Abilene to San Angelo perhaps around 01Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_IDcsdRR1VkpLJ2pWU8ZAGRB2CSDgNCYK-LIYviqVCP_IcVbxwHPmUFFjAyf19FZiEZW=
7P3HwKKfRnJdI3aObPp6grw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34609989 34199852 32449831 30119945 29840166=20
            30200282 32220293 33060265 34390084=20

=3D =3D =3D
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