Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0924
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 20:42:17

ACUS11 KWNS 022042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022041=20
TXZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Eastern parts of the Trans-Pecos into the Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...

Valid 022041Z - 022215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing intense supercell cluster will spread
southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon, with a
continued threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and a
couple of tornadoes. Some threat may spread out of WW 254, and a
downstream watch may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster with a history of
producing tennis-ball sized hail and a tornado is moving slowly
southeastward across eastern Pecos County as of 2030 UTC. The
downstream environment remains quite favorable, with MLCAPE in
excess of 2500 J/kg, and deep-layer shear increasing to 50-60 kt per
the recent KMAF VWP. In the short term, this cluster will continue
to pose a threat of very large hail, with favorably backed surface
winds downstream helping to maintain a tornado threat as well.=20

With time, some upscale growth is possible with this cluster, as
increasingly extensive attendant outflow moves into a very warm and
unstable downstream environment. The severe threat may expand out of
WW 254, and downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed into
parts of the Edwards Plateau.

...Dean/Grams.. 06/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-JmnCv_z8aB-e7IqfRvjLyBXGs0pZKooRVhhzRYA3VWLxnnNP4ywH_Xgdfbz2GPHVMY8iL7pt=
aH7taTKkUutBhdFl7o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30690286 30810221 30510114 29900068 29560091 29470109
            29550146 29700186 29770221 29790239 29770260 30030295
            30620306 30690286=20


=3D =3D =3D
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