Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 20:25:52 AWUS01 KWNH 022025 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030223- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 022023Z - 030223Z Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue across northwestern Oklahoma associated with a slow-moving convective complex. Flash flooding is likely in this area over the next 3-6 hours. Discussion...As of 20Z, an outflow boundary extending from a mature MCS in Kansas extended west-southwest to east-northeast from Ellis to Alfalfa counties in northwestern Oklahoma (per Oklahoma Mesonet obs). Radar/satellite suggested that this outflow boundary was making southeastward progress but was beginning to slow and perhaps stall in the area. Meanwhile, the boundary was providing a focus for strong low-level convergence and repeated thunderstorm development across that area. Recent rain rates near the outflow were in the 1-2.5 inch/hr range (per MRMS), and 1-3 inch rainfall totals were also observed per Mesonet data (highest near Woods County). 20-kt southeasterly low-level flow will likely maintain moisture/buoyancy and convergence in that area, and upstream convection across western Oklahoma will drift northward toward the boundary, resulting in a continued flash flood risk for at least the next few hours. Over time, a larger MCS over the I-27 corridor of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains will reach the Texas/Oklahoma border region by around 00Z. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity just ahead of the MCS is expected to persist as well. This regime will result in a broad axis of 1-2 inch rainfall totals across most of the discussion area. In addition, more focused areas of repeating/training convection near the aforementioned outflow could result in heavier rainfall perhaps exceeding 4 inches through 02Z. Where training/repeating convection can materialize, 1-2 inch/hr rain rates could exceed FFG thresholds (currently in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range - locally higher in terrain-favored areas of northwest Oklahoma). Flash flooding is likely to occur in this regime. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8DvtUcxoL--zR-56ecUQgp_13l5dk9TC21q4J97Z1EhPjBTrFn3noIQVpiwm1Y3VFDia= Cs9Km_BE9cXh_sTf7S0FThk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37639745 37119695 35419770 33849831 33800073=20 35760088 36570032 37399864=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .