Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0922
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 19:47:44

ACUS11 KWNS 021947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021946=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...eastern Montana into far northeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021946Z - 022145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail threat through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across
eastern Montana this afternoon. A few of these have shown recent
upticks in intensity over the last hour, as MLCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg has slowly been advecting westward along southeasterly flow
into eastern Montana. Deep layer shear around 25-30 kts is observed
from KGGW and KBIL. Given the increasing instability and modest deep
layer shear, a few more organized thunderstorms and a transient
supercell or two will be possible through the afternoon and early
evening. Threats will include hail and gusty winds. Given weak
mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing for ascent (mainly terrain
driven), the threat will likely remain localized. As such, a watch
is unlikely to be needed.

...Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6VkAOQibcFd3-RFgUTHYwTfzBsJFuZUoQIU9ooK4Rv6g1vRT1k_4A_A_AC20s9m_fV64SWq35=
6TxDl_UYz1GnMvcLt0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46810812 47300797 47740737 47980663 48020595 47930551
            47310481 46940468 46120478 45880462 45290430 45160426
            44720437 44560462 44560555 45170687 45650732 46810812=20


=3D =3D =3D
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