Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0921
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 19:18:46

ACUS11 KWNS 021918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021918=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the Permian Basin and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...254...

Valid 021918Z - 022045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253, 254 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for very large to giant hail and a couple of
tornadoes will continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Intense supercells are ongoing at 1915 UTC near Fort
Stockton, TX, and also just east of Hobbs, NM. The 18Z MAF sounding
modified for recent surface obs depicts a very favorable hail
environment, with MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg and sufficient
deep-layer shear for supercells. The ongoing supercells will
continue to pose a threat for very large to giant hail as they
spread east/southeastward through the afternoon.=20

Tornado reports have been received from each of this pair of
supercells. While low-level shear/SRH will likely remain somewhat
marginal, favorable low-level thermodynamics and the presence of
ongoing intense supercells will continue to support some tornado
threat through the afternoon.=20

Another supercell has recently developed across extreme southeast
NM, and additional supercell development will be possible through
the afternoon along a weak surface trough, and also potentially
along the trailing outflow from the Fort Stockton supercell.

...Dean.. 06/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9k21Kzx_SBVHdTbXUdK5G3X5lMD_fGv7_kiN4Yy74qsMeeP7kXF9q4WYuSF_QPyICqii5PNGU=
Lg7y6KMxSmCBguqbL0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33100247 33060200 32560184 31820167 31370156 30580149
            30250223 30590303 31000322 32210338 32870306 33100247=20


=3D =3D =3D
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