Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 18:09:47

AWUS01 KWNH 021809
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-030005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0410
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of New York State and much of New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021805Z - 030005Z

Summary...Slow-moving storms are continuing to expand in coverage
and produce locally heavy rainfall.  Flash flooding is possible in
this regime through at least 00Z/8pm Eastern.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine has destabilized the atmosphere
across the discussion sufficiently to promote scattered
thunderstorm development over the past hour.  The storms are in a
fairly moist and unstable environment, with 50s-60s F dewpoints
contributing to 1-1.3 inch PW values and MLCAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg.  Storms were also being influenced by a
southward-moving mid-level wave approaching the area from Quebec.
Vertical wind shear was modest, with weak flow from low to
mid-levels (generaly less than around 15 knots) resulting in a
slow southward drift of ongoing convection (generally around 5-15
mph).  These slow storm motions and moisture profiles were
allowing for areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates to develop (per
MRMS), which was approaching 1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds (lowest in
Maine).

The ongoing scenario will likely persist through 00Z today, with
convection being primarily diurnally driven.  CAMs hint at upscale
growth along with an expansion of heavier rainfall rates
especially in Maine, which isn't surprising as cold pools will
have a tendency to expand and congeal in tandem with expanding
convective coverage through the afternoon.  The heaviest rainfall
totals today (exceeding 1 inch amounts) are expected in Maine
today, although localized areas in most of eastern New York and
New England will have potential for 2-3 inch amounts.  These
totals could result in localized areas of excessive runoff through
00Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9mzP1UDx7oEsCwpFVIlI4oaU1HLo_Mb_-3cDMt17T0_btxeOneI71DkVnrcENR4CWs0W=
trLLVNhRkfTU3IPZQq958Ks$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   46296849 45786792 45076761 44566798 44166939=20
            43307025 42417065 41777102 41397223 41037354=20
            41317431 41697494 42277547 43097531 44157426=20
            44527240 45197053 46126937=20

=3D =3D =3D
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