Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 17:57:19 AWUS01 KWNH 021757 FFGMPD TXZ000-022355- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0409 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 156 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Areas affected...Stockton and Edwards Plateau Regions of West Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 021755Z - 022355Z SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding is possible this afternoon across the Edwards and Stockton Plateau regions of west central Texas. Isolated to widely scattered storms initiating along the dry line will propagate eastward into the Gulf moisture inflow, with long-lived cells developing capable of high rainfall rates. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are initiating along the dry line in the Big Bend Region of west Texas this afternoon. Like areas further north, the area east/ahead of the storms consists of extreme surface based instability, with values analyzed in the RAP as high as 4,500 J/kg along the Rio Grande. Dewpoints in that area are also in the mid-70s, while further north and east in the Edwards Plateau they're in the mid-60s. Thus, the storms will have plenty of moisture and instability to work with. The forcing will be a bit lower in this region as compared to further north. In addition to the dry line, the southern periphery of an upper level shortwave is moving through, likely helping initiate the storms that have already formed. While the shortwave and dry line are initiating the convection, it's expected that the storms will propagate eastward and remain sustained by the aforementioned abundant moisture and instability, both of which will continue to be advected northwestward from the Gulf into west-central Texas. Thus, with the forcing waning with time, expect storm coverage to be more isolated to widely scattered in this region as compared with areas further north. Furthermore, antecedent conditions are significantly drier/less favorable to flash flooding than areas further north. Therefore, FFGs are notably higher in this area. Isolated flash flooding is possible as a result as these strong to severe thunderstorms with abundant moisture and instability cross the region. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-4St4TCxR1W4Gms1BXr1pvkAD-pMuV--PmtkMNKzKE5kYqxQIgU3lZyUaBjqH0knhht-= 9TATZL64trvNixAYvMTvgP8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32640060 32060000 31209920 29949971 29820164=20 29910311 30460336 31340341 31820312 31860247=20 31910156=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .