Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 17:09:41 ACUS02 KWNS 021709 SWODY2 SPC AC 021708 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the southern High Plains into central and south Texas. ....Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging, centered along the central portion of the US/Canada border and extending across much of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, will persist on Saturday while gradually shifting westward. A pair of upper troughs will flank is ridging, one extending from the Canadian Maritimes trough the Northeast States and the other remaining off the coast of British Columbia. Given the northern latitude of these troughs, little influence is anticipated across the CONUS. Elsewhere, a weak upper low is forecast to remain largely in place over the NV/UT/ID border intersection vicinity. Surface pattern will feature modest lee troughing across the High Plains, with moderate low-level moisture east of this troughing across the Plains. Low-level moisture is expected to be limited farther east into the Mid MS and OH Valley, which will be on the southern edge of expansive surface ridging center over northeast Canada. ....Southern High Plains in Central TX/TX Hill Country/South TX... Thunderstorm initiation appears probable over the higher terrain of the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon, with some potential for initiation farther east along the lee trough as well. High-based storms moving into (or developing within) the deeply mixed air mass over eastern NM will result in the potential for damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening. Hail is also possible, and is most likely closer to the terrain with early development. Farther south and east (into more of central TX and the TX Hill Country), there is some uncertainty regarding the strength and location of any outflow from Friday night's storms. This outflow could act as the impetus for new development during the early afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest this is most likely in the SJT vicinity. Guidance also suggests a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into Big Bend/Edwards Plateau vicinity. Modest ascent and slightly stronger mid-level flow attendant to this shortwave may help organize the afternoon/early evening storms expected over far west TX. Resulting convective line would then push east into more of the TX Hill Country and South TX. ....East TX through central/eastern OK into central/eastern KS... An arc of slightly higher low-level moisture is expected from east TX northward/northwestward into central/eastern OK and central/eastern KS, between the ridging over the Mid MS/OH Valleys and stronger mixing across the High Plains. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous within this region, but diurnal heating and aforementioned low-level moisture will result in air mass destabilization by the mid afternoon. Modest low-level confluence within this destabilized air mass is expected to result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular and outflow-dominant storm mode anticipated. A few isolated instances of damaging gusts are possible within this regime, but overall coverage is expected to be less than 5%. ....Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... As an upper trough/low moves southward across New England and the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms will probably develop Saturday afternoon along or just ahead of a cold front moving south-southwestward across WV and western VA. Isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity, but weak deep-layer shear limits confidence in a more organized severe threat. ...Mosier.. 06/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .