Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 16:56:47 AWUS01 KWNH 021656 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-022255- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0408 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1256 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Areas affected...TX Panhandle and Far Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021655Z - 022255Z SUMMARY...A very active day of strong and severe thunderstorms will cause scattered instances of flash flooding in the TX Panhandle through this afternoon. This will be driven by high rainfall rates and anomalously moist to locally saturated antecedent soil conditions. DISCUSSION...An incredibly active weather pattern remains in place with a longwave negatively tilted trough in place west of the area across the Four Corners Region. A strong shortwave trough is moving northeastward, rounding the base of the longwave trough, which in turn is maximizing upper level support and lift across the Texas Panhandle. SBCAPE values across eastern NM are nearing extreme levels in eastern NM with values of 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg based on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis of the RAP. Meanwhile, with SBCAPE values between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg are seen over the Texas Panhandle. As on previous days, Gulf moisture continues to advect northwestward across central Texas into the region, so neither moisture nor instability will be a problem for continued upscale convective development across the Texas Panhandle through this afternoon. The storms that have already formed across far eastern NM will continue developing north and east into a line of strong and severe thunderstorms as they move across the central Texas Panhandle this afternoon. It's notable that the current storms have formed 2 hours earlier than most of the CAMs guidance as this suggests stronger forcing and thermodynamics already arriving across the region. The primary factor working against more widespread flash flooding is the expected to be the relatively fast forward propagation of storms off to the east by later this afternoon. Initial storm motions for the storms in far eastern NM have been northeast, but much slower, and thus, more favorable for potential flash flooding in the short-term. Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely as these strong storms that are already producing rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour move over the flood-sensitive Texas Panhandle over the next few hours given their antecedent soil conditions. Expect rainfall rates to potentially increase further locally with the strongest storms, with rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 5 inches with isolated heavier amounts as the storms move through. The highest amounts can be expected where cell-mergers and training storms maximize the time those areas pick up heavy rain. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-rTjAbxRdUoiL4pwZZYa_i8VC8YoMriZYBcudQHtSTv9oGQay6jK1PYf6JN52rwC5pXP= AqeCfxvvGd7N5vj_IY1C-vY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36500196 36470063 35970006 34710004 33060055=20 31960167 31970325 32610369 33460355 34530323=20 35290304 36060279=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .