Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0918
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 16:35:44

ACUS11 KWNS 021635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021635=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 021635Z - 021800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected by early/mid afternoon,
with a threat of very large to giant hail (potentially 3-4 inches in
diameter), localized severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes.
Tornado Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is underway across the TX Permian Basin
region, with some thinning of low/midlevel cloudiness noted over the
last hour. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rich low-level moisture
are already supporting MLCAPE in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg, with an
increase above 3000 J/kg possible this afternoon. Meanwhile,
increasing midlevel flow near the base of a shortwave
mid/upper-level trough moving across the southern Rockies is
supporting effective shear of 40-55 kt across the region. This
instability/shear combination will result in a very favorable severe
thunderstorm environment, and scattered supercell development is
expected by early/mid afternoon as favorable large-scale ascent
attendant to the southern Rockies shortwave spreads over the region.

Elongated and relatively straight hodographs will favor splitting
supercells, with a primary threat of very large to giant
(potentially 3-4 inch in diameter) hail. While low-level flow will
likely remain relatively modest, some backing of surface winds may
support sufficient enhancement of low-level shear/SRH to support the
threat for a couple of tornadoes, especially with any more intense
and long-lived supercells. Localized severe gusts will be possible
as well.=20

With supercell development possible within the next 2-3 hours,
Tornado Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon.

...Dean/Grams.. 06/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4VbNS5joDvZEyAjSvhBOU811CgYD9A2ygHETWue0RKJ-F3b3dO14WHxud_CRFjef9E209xcne=
wno0pcLD4arr9ZHbH4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30080282 31900321 32760359 32860314 32710134 30410098
            29420096 30000212 30080282=20


=3D =3D =3D
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