Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0917
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 15:35:13

ACUS11 KWNS 021535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021534=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-021700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into
extreme east-central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021534Z - 021700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm development is possible late this morning,
and will become increasingly likely this afternoon. An initial
threat of large hail is expected, with an increasing threat of
severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes expected to evolve over time.
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently been noted across
Bailey County, TX, and also near Clovis, NM. Despite the early time
of day and relatively widespread cloudiness, steep midlevel lapse
rates and rich low-level moisture are already supporting MLCAPE of
greater than 1500 J/kg, with larger MUCAPE available for slightly
elevated updrafts. Storm coverage is expected to increase with time
late this morning into the afternoon, as buoyancy continues to
increase and large-scale ascent strengthens in advance of a
shortwave mid/upper-level trough over the southern Rockies.=20

Moderate midlevel flow in advance of the shortwave trough is
currently supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, with some increase
possible with time this afternoon, especially with southward extent
across the South Plains. Convection that may be somewhat elevated
this morning is expected to become surface-based with time, with
additional development expected as MLCINH decreases. Several
supercells may evolve by early afternoon, with an initial threat of
very large hail and localized severe gusts. A modest increase in
low-level shear/SRH may support the threat for a couple of tornadoes
as well, especially if any intense supercells can become established
this afternoon and remain discrete.=20

Watch issuance is likely by afternoon in order to address these
threats, and may be needed as early as late morning if ongoing
convection continues to increase.

...Dean/Grams.. 06/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!44HOzfsL9yQx9IPH0MWvpMh1eJI60_nHjQb0ukcXSxEoG7u_9WBmxajT4JloZxALfba89D94I=
GarkPmYqqXmF6xC1hU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33380287 33830300 34160352 34800324 35860257 36360209
            36310083 34640036 33690049 33090104 33020276 33380287=20


=3D =3D =3D
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