Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 08:17:13

ACUS48 KWNS 020817
SWOD48
SPC AC 020815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that an omega-like
block pattern aloft will probably continue for much of next week
across the CONUS. An upper trough/low centered over CA should move
little through at least Day 6/Wednesday, but it may eventually
become more elongated and extend northwest to southeast across the
Southwest. Meanwhile, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely
persist over much of the Plains, with occasional weak mid-level
perturbations moving over the southern Plains. An upper low over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic should gradually reform and strengthen
through the early to middle part of next week. Thunderstorms will be
possible across broad portions of the CONUS through the extended
forecast period. However, it currently appears that stronger flow
aloft and related deep-layer shear will remain too weak to support a
substantial threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, some
chance for strong to locally severe convection may exist in
sub-regional areas each day, based on mesoscale processes such as
outflow boundaries and occasional convective amalgamation into
small, generally disorganized clusters.

...Gleason.. 06/02/2023

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