Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 06:00:41 ACUS02 KWNS 020600 SWODY2 SPC AC 020559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the southern Plains into east Texas. ....Synopsis... High-amplitude mid/upper-level ridging will persist over much of the central CONUS and Canada on Saturday. Meanwhile, a weak upper low should remain over the northern Great Basin. Another upper trough/low should dig southward over New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the period. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow associated with the southern-stream jet is forecast to continue over northern Mexico and portions of the southern Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing should extend along much of the length of the High Plains, with a moist low-level airmass present to its east. ....Southern Plains into East Texas... Substantial convective overturning is expected in the Day 1/Friday time frame across most of the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough ejects over this region. While this activity will likely weaken by the start of the period Saturday morning, outflow boundaries related to these prior thunderstorms may influence the northern extent of any isolated severe risk Saturday afternoon and evening. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain generally weak/nebulous, there is a signal in guidance for renewed development Saturday afternoon across the higher terrain of central into eastern NM and far west TX. Deep-layer shear should remain generally modest, but enough veering of the wind profile with height through mid/upper levels may still allow for some loosely organized thunderstorm clusters to develop. As low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating and instability increases, convective downdrafts could produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts. With somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates also present, initial thunderstorm development may also produce isolated marginally severe hail. A Marginal Risk has been introduced from eastern NM/west TX into parts of north-central/east TX to account for this isolated severe potential. The eastern extent of the Marginal Risk attempts to delineate where robust thunderstorms may develop along outflow from earlier convection. But, this potential is a bit more uncertain compared to the initiation of convection farther west along the higher terrain and surface lee trough. ....Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... As an upper trough/low moves southward across New England and the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms will probably develop Saturday afternoon along or just ahead of a cold front moving south-southwestward across WV and western VA. Isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity, but weak deep-layer shear limits confidence in a more organized severe threat. ....Elsewhere... Strong convection may sporadically occur across parts of MT, NE, KS, and OK Saturday afternoon/evening, as modestly enhanced flow aloft should be present over these regions in association with multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs. However, confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential remains too low to add any severe hail/wind probabilities at this time. ...Gleason.. 06/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .