Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 02 2023 00:40:12

ACUS01 KWNS 020040
SWODY1
SPC AC 020038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated strong storm or developing small cluster of storms may
pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of east
central New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas through
around 8-10 PM MDT.

....01Z Update...
A zone of differential surface heating, associated with remnants of
old convective outflow, remains a focus for isolated supercell
development across east central New Mexico.  Modest
east-southeasterly near-surface inflow into the updrafts appears to
remain characterized by moderately large CAPE in excess of 1500
J/kg, and this may remain the case for at least another couple of
hours in the presence of strong west-northeasterly deep-layer shear.

This is occurring near the northeastern periphery of building
ridging/rising heights aloft, and it remains unclear when increasing
inhibition will begin to suppress convective development.  However,
it might not be out of the question that a modestly strengthening
southerly low-level jet could contribute to at least some further
upscale growth before convection weakens later this evening.

...Kerr.. 06/02/2023

$$

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