Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0914
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 20:10:37

ACUS11 KWNS 012010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012010=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico into parts of west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012010Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all
hazards will likely increase during the next few hours, and a watch
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convective processing over the
Texas South Plains, surface observations and visible satellite
imagery show a remnant outflow boundary extending from southeastern
New Mexico eastward into the Texas South Plains. Diurnal heating of
a moist boundary layer in the vicinity of this boundary is yielding
moderate surface-based instability this afternoon. Isolated
convection is beginning to develop along the boundary, and this
activity should continue to mature through the afternoon hours amid
continued diurnal destabilization. Backed surface winds near the
boundary beneath a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow
will contribute to 40-50+ kt effective shear with modest low-level
hodograph curvature near the recovering outflow boundary. This will
support organized convection including supercells capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. A watch may be
needed for parts of the area.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7MgIugM-KBckTV9XWM_ivk_ISlmq9l9dgCkwRHQj_dhg0DVTmS9Abqys6swZ3BIPnjyzmAy09=
plZnBf0-P4VJpvNMSQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33190043 33320026 33419991 33309963 32969961 32529970
            32270006 32180054 32080103 32050175 32080245 32150290
            32320319 32620358 32880375 33220384 33500378 33740356
            33810328 33660284 33440234 33310186 33050101 33060070
            33190043=20


=3D =3D =3D
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