Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0913
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 19:46:06

ACUS11 KWNS 011946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011945=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central New Mexico into west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011945Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and locally severe
gusts should increase during the next few hours across parts of
east-central New Mexico into west Texas.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convection is evolving
along the higher terrain in east-central New Mexico this afternoon
-- where a feed of moist easterly low-level flow (upper 50s to lower
60s dewpoints) is impinging on the area. While surface temperatures
are somewhat cool from earlier convection, the rich moisture beneath
steepening midlevel lapse rates should support an uptick in
convective intensity during the next few hours. This surface-based
instability, coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear (35-40 kt
of effective shear) should support a few organized storms including
the potential for supercells capable of isolated large hail and
locally severe gusts. The overall severe threat over this area may
remain too isolated for a watch; however, the severe threat should
increase over areas farther east through the afternoon.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-55Uab0uWQf1ymc5bavMWQlWFieGPsLhmMzfqNbeV4Pbm6Ijr0bAWJkSscq6YNU0swj-9al4U=
syazumd8xDhTE0C3Js$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35320255 35130244 34300278 33810295 33420315 33230340
            33150395 33160440 33310472 33520495 33760521 34260552
            34590573 35130599 35450614 35820613 36000594 36070559
            35920475 35770434 35550370 35320255=20


=3D =3D =3D
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