Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 18:13:56

AWUS01 KWNH 011813
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-020011-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0405
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...North Central New Mexico & Far Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011811Z - 020011Z

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is underway across north-central
NM and far southern CO. Coverage will continue to increase over
the next several hours, resulting in an isolated flash flooding
threat, particularly in areas hit by rains that occurred yesterday
and where cell-mergers can extend the duration of the heavy rains.

DISCUSSION...A weakening but still potent upper level low over
northeastern AZ is enhancing forcing out ahead of it across NM and
CO this afternoon. Meanwhile, the left-exit region of a 100 kt
upper-level jet streak is further supporting synoptic lift over
the area. Locally strong diurnal heating is underway which is
resulting in SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This coupled with
modest, but convergent, moisture transport into the region will be
facilitating widely scattered thunderstorm development across the
region this afternoon.

The current storms that have already formed over this area,
especially over north-central NM, are producing localized rainfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are forming out ahead (north and east) of the
strongest cells. Slow cell-motions, cell-mergers and localized
cell-training may favor locally heavy amounts this afternoon of 2
to 3 inches.

Should these heavier rains move over any urbanized areas, arroyos,
burn scars, or areas particularly hard hit from yesterday's rain,
isolated flash flooding will be possible.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8M2ehi2RJVTxIHOT4jGZ4DIo3R3WQjN03fMldfNxbzw3haqaPd1x9KXBCLNOCfdQ1yDP=
o7GdCz0he4lMK7jB7TxNocA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37820476 37610417 36750394 35980349 34500368=20
            33790437 33910550 34800618 35430683 36290715=20
            36800708 37320646 37440540=20

=3D =3D =3D
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