Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 14:14:53 AWUS01 KWNH 011414 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-011900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0404 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1013 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Southern High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011410Z - 011900Z SUMMARY...Redeveloping rounds of showers and thunderstorms this morning may result in some additional short-term flash flooding concerns. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery is showing areas of convection redeveloping across areas of the TX Panhandle as additional upstream shortwave energy arrives downwind of an upper-level trough/low over the Four Corners region. The airmass over the southern High Plains has largely been stabilized from the overnight/early-morning activity, but the latest RAP analysis is showing an axis of instability from the southern part of the TX Panhandle northwestward into parts of eastern NM with MUCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg and this coupled with the approaching upstream energy and a relatively convergent low-level flow regime is favoring the redevelopment of pockets of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. Hires model guidance led by recent runs of the HRRR support some additional upscale growth of convection over the next few hours with some potential backbuilding and locally repeating cell-activity. The rainfall rates are expected to be on the order of as much as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour given the available instability and somewhat anomalous moisture environment. Expecting locally an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain to be possible going through the midday time frame and especially where any of these new convective rounds repeat over the same location. The heaviest rains over the next few hours should generally be south of the areas that were hit hardest over the last 24 hours with rain, but there may be sufficient cell-redevelopment over areas of eastern NM and into the northern TX Panhandle, that the additional rains here may aggravate ongoing runoff concerns. The rains farther south down closer to the Lubbock vicinity alone also may be heavy enough given higher rainfall rate potential to cause some flash flooding concerns in the short-term. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ZDUtk_k24VUrJbKKqqu-mH24dbDXd-evNMbaawXuSyDXld_DA5SI33pA1HDUr1oLjxe= Oja0Q7ydh-lHA-v9QGv0ZRk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36170315 35710155 34340055 32970067 32430140=20 32560278 33820407 35320427=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .