Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 05:34:46

AWUS01 KWNH 010534
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-011100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010535Z - 011100Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for continued
back-building/training thunderstorms with additional 2-5" totals
continuing flash flooding conditions across the area.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows a mature MCS starting to
take on V-pattern with embedded overshooting tops below -60C
breaking through the broadening cirrus canopy across E NM,
indicative of continued thunderstorm development.  WV suite
suggests upper-level pattern/environment will remain conducive of
maintaining the complex and strengthening the low level
environment to support additional development through the
overnight period.  AMV and RAP analysis show 110kt jet core across
the Mexico/AZ/NM line becomes highly diffluent over E NM with a
northern jet streak into SE CO compounding highly favorable
divergence aloft and supporting low level cyclogenesis just
upstream of the MCS.

Highly anomalous moisture with surface Tds in the upper 50s/low
60s  (Total PWats to 1.25") continue to be advected northward
across E NM and from the southeast over the Permian Basin to be
highly convergent with a stationary outflow boundary from the
complex north of ROW toward S of CVS.  This strong moisture flux
convergence along with narrow band of unstable air east of the dry
line will support additional thunderstorm develops along the
upwind edge of the complex.  While deep layer steering flow
remains generally parallel to the convergence boundary.  This will
continue to provide redevelopment of cells capable of 2"/hr to
train across areas already flooded from DeBaca county across N
Roosevelt/S Curry into TX.  Cold pool/outflow continues to be
pushed east and west to anchor the boundary in place.  As such an
additional 3-5" totals are possible extending into the west
central portions of the TX panhandle.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!97J4hiy0NET6Rri9oIqQzCexmqZjkztqybb1i6rjZYyRyX-pMqP3qa4UcsbeGyOmEQxX=
rC_8kzX3bVTSVhMmhlzinmE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36010263 35890141 35230093 34130172 33780319=20
            33970444 34210482 34690506 35300485 35680413=20
            35900329=20

=3D =3D =3D
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